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2009年終大盤點:太陽能光伏產業十大事件

   2009-12-24 PV Society21世紀新能源15250

1.太陽能電池組件價格如坐“過山車”。2009年,連續5年保持攀升的太陽能電池組件價格突然出現了大幅下跌,平均價格從2008年的$3.25跌至$1.90,到2009年底,甚至出現了$1.40/Wp的低價,但是,這一有利的價格受益于規模較大的企業,其他企業仍然承受著巨大的購買壓力。

2.令人困惑的光伏發電安裝量。2009年初,根據市場需求,全球的光伏發電安裝量約有2 gigawatts庫存,全年銷售量約為4.8-4.9 gigawatts,較往年下降了11%-12%,而安裝量卻超出銷售量約1-2 gigawatts,接近6 gigawatts。

3.09年后,薄膜技術將成為一項成熟的技術。2009年,CdTe的制造商First Solar始終位列各專業榜單第一位,成為技術銷售領域的領航者,該技術的銷售占09年所有銷售總額的25%,這是有史以來的第一次,創造了一項嶄新的記錄。

4.2009年, 隨著美國在太陽能光伏產業繼續保持領先地位,加利福尼亞領軍其他各州實行了一系列重要舉措,如通過了AB32條款,淘汰AB920中凈超額罰款條款,AB920鼓勵開發更強大的系統使用者,而不是小型住宅和商業系統。

5.德國再次拯救了太陽能光伏產業。經歷了年初的緩慢起步,德國的技術銷售在2009年中旬復蘇,這與選舉后的新政府提出的稅收改革休戚相關。

6.2009年夏天,加拿大安大略省通過了《環保能源法》,根據《環保能源法》,安大略省將實行《上網電價法》, 并要求至少60%的安裝系統達到合格標準,其中包括家用安裝系統,如此,安大略省至少在短期內可以提供一個強大的市場,同時刺激國內生產。

7.日本建成無需補貼的可持續市場,并聲稱將在11月實行《上網電價法》。

8.BP Solar關閉了位于澳大利亞和西班牙的模塊組裝廠,將模塊組裝集中在美國進行。

9.原材料供應商MEMC越過電池組件制造商,直接收購了美國的系統集成商和PPA模式的先驅SunEdison。

10.在美國,越來越多的州開始實行《上網電價法》,雖然其程序與歐洲模式不同,仍然為開拓美國的太陽能光伏市場奠定了良好的基礎。


Yes, it is time for another boring Top 10 list. Subjective though these lists are, and almost always omitting someone’s favorite item, it’s tradition as the old tired year fades and the new hopeful year emerges to note what stood out as important, and what will continue to influence us in the new year. It’s a tough job, frankly, for the year 2009 in solar ― a Top 20 would leave out some crucial events. But, since you have got to draw the line somewhere … here is a starter Top 10 list for 2009. By all means, write in with a few of your own.

1. The year in which buying modules and cells became an extreme sport. After watching technology prices (cell and module) climb and keep on climbing globally during the 2004 to 2008 boom … 2009 saw a crash in pricing (welcome to installers, system integrators, investors and distributors, though not to manufacturers) to as low as $1.40/Wp for larger buyers at the end of the year, from an average of $3.25 for this buying category in 2008. 2009’s average selling price to the first point of sale: $1.90. (This average is for the buyers in large quantities, though, at one time or another every buyer enjoyed extreme buying power in 2009.)

2. The year of confused counting. Globally, 2009 started with ~2 gigawatts in inventory, mostly on the demand side of the market. With sales (to the first point of sale) down 11% to 12% (much better than originally anticipated), installations in 2009 will actually outpace sales of technology to be 1 to 2 gigawatts higher ― though this should not be a surprise. 2009 sales to the first point of sale ~4.8 to 4.9 gigawatts, with installations close to 6 gigawatts.

3. After this year, thin films should no longer be referred to as an emerging technology. First Solar, a manufacturer of CdTe technology, will be the top shipper of technology to the first point of sale in 2009 ― the first time a thin film manufacturer has been number one on any Top 10 list - and, thin film sales will be close to 25% in 2009 of total, another record.

4. California continuing to lead in state solar activism, along with continuing as the strongest U.S. market for solar did a number of crucial things in 2009: Assembly Bill 32 passed (a feed in tariff for systems <3-MWp) and even more important, eliminated the net excess penalty with Assembly Bill 920 … now utilities must give system owners the choice of

 
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